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Excerpt from The Great Divide by Alan Nevin:

October 7, 2016

Without data you’re just another person with an opinion.

W. Edwards Deming


The Great Divide is a book about America and tomorrow. It is a compelling story of your future and your children’s future as divined through a myriad of research data and my personal travel, teaching and research.

It is a book about trends, past and future. It is a book that blends demography, economics, and, to some degree, real estate. In fact, I have devoted my professional life to the subjects of both demography and real estate economics.

The trends I discuss herein are real, but they have not usually been widely recognized, because trends happen gently. Most important, trends are very difficult to reverse. Most of what I discuss here relates to trends that have been going on for more than half a century, but are rarely visible to the casual observer. However, these trends will have important and major effects on the economy of our nation and, in many cases, a direct effect on how and where you and your offspring will earn a living.

The book takes a look at the demographic patterns in the industrialized world and compares them to those in the United States. The industrialized world is aging, and that has an enormous effect on the workforce and its ability to replenish itself enough for productivity to be maintained and new jobs to be created.

Within the United States, you will see the remarkable change in the population and employment by region and by state, and you will get a look at the future in terms of where people and jobs are going.

The book divides our nation’s metropolitan areas into three categories: the fast-growing, the survivors, and the stagnant. Similarly, the states are evaluated for long-term growth potential. By way of an initial peek at the facts, three-quarters of the gains in population and employment in the nation takes place in fourteen states.

I spend a lot of time talking about California, Florida, and Texas—California because it is more of a state of mind than a state; Florida because it is an integral suburb of New York; and Texas because it is the preeminent symbol of American capitalism and success. The three states together account for one out of every four persons in the nation.

All of these trends have a dynamic effect on the value of your home, your job, and real property. It is inevitable that real-estate values coincide with the paths of population and employment trends.

Pointedly, the plusses of tomorrow’s economies of the world far outweigh the negatives. There are good times ahead for a big part of the world, including, of course, the United States.


This article was originally published by Xpera Group which is now part of The Vertex Companies, LLC.

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Xpera Group